08 October 2024

As Asian nations increasingly look to sunset older mobile generations in favour of more efficient 4G/5G technology, we explore the opportunities, challenge, and likely outlook…

Much of the world is currently exploring the sunsetting of older mobile generations – 2G and 3G – to open up additional spectrum for 4G and 5G, which are much more spectrum efficient.

“This should help meet the growing demand for mobile data services,” explains Jiashun (Jason) Tu, Technical Spokesperson, Chief Strategy and Ecosystem Expert, ZTE, highlighting the below key points:

• Valuable ‘golden spectrum’: 2G and 3G networks typically occupy lower frequency bands, often referred to as ‘golden spectrum’ due to their superior coverage capabilities. Reallocating this spectrum to newer technologies can significantly improve overall network performance and coverage.
• Higher spectral efficiency: 4G technology offers much higher spectral efficiency compared to 2G and 3G. This means that the same amount of spectrum, when refarmed to 4G, can serve a larger number of devices and provide higher data rates.
• Energy efficiency: 4G technology is also more energy-efficient than its predecessors, which aligns with efforts to reduce the carbon footprint of telecommunications networks.
• Global trends: According to the Global mobile Suppliers Association (GSA), as of June 2024, 192 2G and 3G network shutdowns have been completed, planned, or are in progress across 68 countries and territories. This indicates an accelerating pace of technology transition worldwide.
• Widespread 2G sunsetting: The GSA survey also shows that operators in 22 countries and territories have already shut down their 2G networks, with an additional 35 operators planning to do so.

While many Asian countries are already actively sunsetting 2G/3G, the efficiency of reallocation depends on how quickly governments and regulators can reassign the spectrum and whether they allow enough bandwidth for advanced services like 5G, which requires wide channels to deliver high performance. Indeed, while sunsetting 2G/3G helps create more efficient use of available spectrum, this mainly addresses short-term demands – which may come to outpace supply, particularly in densely populated cities where spectrum is already highly congested.

“Sunsetting 2G and 3G networks will undoubtedly free up valuable spectrum, but the question of meeting demand is more nuanced,” explains Simon Trend, Group Managing Director – Americas, APAC, and MENA, Wireless Logic. “While this newly available spectrum will significantly boost 4G and 5G capacity, the exponential growth of IoT devices and data-hungry applications means we’re likely to see continued pressure on spectrum resources. The key lies in efficient spectrum utilisation and advanced technologies like dynamic spectrum sharing, which will be crucial in maximising the benefits of sunsetting while addressing ever-growing connectivity demands. Flexible, multi-network solutions are becoming increasingly important in this evolving landscape.”

Indeed, the success of 2G/3G sunsetting will depend on factors such as the speed of network upgrades, the adoption rate of newer devices by consumers, and the development of solutions for services that still rely on 2G or 3G networks (like some IoT applications), notes Jiashun (Jason) Tu, Technical Spokesperson, Chief Strategy and Ecosystem Expert, ZTE: “nonetheless, the global trend towards sunsetting older networks is a crucial step in optimizing spectrum usage and meeting the ever-increasing demand for mobile data services.”

“Shutting down 2G and 3G is necessary to free up spectrum for 4G and 5G and bring advanced connectivity to more communities,” adds Kenneth Hardat, Telco Strategy Lead, BICS. “However, it is important not to lose sight of how many people still rely on these legacy networks and ensure that progress doesn’t come at the cost of exacerbating the digital divide and leaving people behind.”

Making the switch

Such a large-scale initiative requires hefty preparation. Communications service providers (CSPs) must manage the operational complexity of phasing out legacy technologies while ensuring the reliability of ongoing services.

“Operators have access to extensive network data and understand user device habits,” says Tu. “They should leverage this data effectively for customer communication to ensure a smooth transition. By analysing usage patterns and preferences, operators can tailor their approach to different customer segments, minimizing disruption during the switchover process.”

In some regions, particularly rural or remote areas, 2G or 3G networks are the only available options due to the wider coverage these lower frequency bands provide. Shutting down these networks too early could result in loss of service in areas where newer technologies haven’t been fully deployed yet. This may require additional investment in infrastructure.

“Before initiating the sunsetting process, CSPs should conduct a comprehensive audit of their network usage, engage with major enterprise customers to understand their needs, and develop a phased migration plan,” states Trend. “A ‘connect and transition’ approach is crucial for minimising disruptions. This can be facilitated by leveraging modern technologies such as eSIM (embedded SIM) and OTA (Over-the-air) programmable multi-IMSI SIMs. These technologies offer the flexibility to remotely provision and update connectivity profiles, enabling devices to seamlessly switch between networks and technologies without physical SIM replacements.”

Moreover, many users, particularly in rural or developing regions, still rely on 2G and 3G networks for basic voice and messaging services. CSPs must create a smooth migration path for customers, ensuring they upgrade to devices compatible with 4G or 5G. This can involve subsidies for new devices, detailed communication plans, and customer education campaigns.

“While sunsetting older mobile generations presents challenges, new technologies, particularly AI-enabled devices, can better serve various user groups, including the elderly,” says Tu.

Low-cost smartphones can be introduced, incorporating features like local language support and AI voice commands. “This approach helps impoverished and illiterate populations overcome barriers to using smartphones, effectively bridging the digital divide,” adds Tu.

Many IoT/M2M devices, particularly those used in agriculture, utilities, and transportation, still rely on 2G and 3G networks. These devices often have long lifecycles, meaning many are still in operation and difficult to replace quickly. CSPs must engage with customers to identify affected devices and create strategies to upgrade or replace them with 4G/5G-compatible options. Moreover, they may need to maintain limited 2G/3G services to support these devices during the transition.

“The primary hurdles include supporting millions of legacy IoT devices, ensuring continuity of critical services, maintaining rural coverage where 2G/3G networks are often the backbone, and navigating diverse regulatory frameworks across different countries,” agrees Trend. “A secondary consideration is the changing frequencies being used, and how they reach devices in specific locations (e.g. lift shafts or metering boxes) using low frequencies wavelengths, which may not be used by higher frequency alternatives and will therefore require testing of devices in-situ to understand the full impact of any sunset.”

To achieve a successful sunset, CSPs must perform a thorough customer impact analysis; create comprehensive migration plans; adopt a gradual and phased approach; invest in network infrastructure; identify backup plans for critical services; and ensure regular communication with stakeholders, regulatory bodies and the public.

“Successfully sunsetting older mobile generations requires CSPs to balance the benefits of freeing up spectrum with the challenges of customer migration, device upgrades, and service continuity,” says Tu. “By carefully considering the unique needs of their customers, industries, and regions, while working closely with regulators and stakeholders, CSPs can mitigate risks and ensure a smooth transition to faster, more efficient mobile technologies.

Ecosystem impacts

MNOs, naturally, have a huge role to play in the sunsetting of 2G/3G, and therefore also hold a significant amount of control in the switch over. The same cannot be said for MVNOs.

Tu suggests that “4G networks fully support MVNO operations from a technical standpoint. The virtual operator model can be seamlessly carried forward into the 4G era, suggesting that MVNOs may not face significantly different impacts compared to MNOs during the sunsetting process.”
However, Trend believes that MVNOs - particularly those serving IoT markets - face challenges in migrating from the 2G/3G networks they’ve relied on for low-cost, low-bandwidth connectivity.

“This transition may involve higher costs and potential service disruptions as they update their technology stack to support 4G and 5G,” explains Trend.

“However, MVNOs also have advantages. They typically use more agile business models and multi-MNO partnerships to offer greater flexibility in adapting to network changes. This allows them to develop robust transition plans, selecting optimal networks for different use cases and regions. The key for MVNOs will be close collaboration with MNO partners and potential renegotiation of agreements to secure access to newer technologies. While challenges are significant, MVNOs’ adaptability may allow them to turn network sunsetting into an opportunity for innovation and enhanced service offerings.”

IoT/M2M operators, and those within the ecosystem, will also keenly feel the sunsetting of 2G/3G. Many such devices utilise older mobile generation networks “due to their low-frequency coverage,” reminds Hardat. “If these networks are switched off, operators must work with industries to provide alternative connectivity solutions for sensors, trackers and other forms of low-powered IoT devices.”

For continued support of IoT and voice services during the sunsetting of older mobile generations, transitioning to LTE-M (Long Term Evolution for Machines) and NB-IoT (Narrowband IoT), which offer power efficiency, low data rates, and extended coverage, similar to 2G/ 3G, should be considered. Dynamic spectrum sharing (DSS) is another option, which allows service providers to use the same spectrum bands for both 4G and 5G, supporting a more gradual transition that can help avoid coverage gaps during the shutdown of 2G/3G. Low-Power Wide-Area Networks (LPWAN) like Sigfox and LoRa, also offer an alternative to cellular networks for specific IoT applications, particularly those requiring low data rates and long battery life.

Trend believes that the key to maintaining robust IoT and voice services during network transitions lies in flexibility and foresight. A multi-technology approach, blending 4G, 5G, and low-power networks, allows for tailored solutions that match device needs with optimal network infrastructure.

“This adaptability is enhanced by eSIM technology, enabling seamless Remote SIM Provisioning and over-the-air network switching as the connectivity landscape evolves,” elaborates Trend. “Technologies like Cat-1 BIS, a 4G LTE option with wide availability, play a crucial role in supporting various IoT applications such as sensors and metering, especially in areas where newer technologies may not be fully implemented.”

Ultimately, success hinges on adopting technologies and management strategies that can adapt to changing network environments, says Trend. This approach not only addresses immediate sunsetting challenges but also future-proofs IoT deployments, ensuring they remain viable and efficient in an ever-evolving connectivity ecosystem.

Crunching the numbers

In less-developed nations, device affordability is a critical factor that could slow the sunsetting of older mobile generations.

Many users, particularly in rural areas or low-income brackets, continue to rely on 2G and 3G networks due to the high cost of upgrading to 4G/5G devices. Without significant reductions in the cost of 4G/5G devices, government subsidies, or industry-backed programs, CSPs will face pressure to keep legacy networks active longer than in more developed markets.

“Device affordability is a significant factor that could slow down the sunsetting process in less developed Asian nations,” agrees Trend. “The higher cost of 4G/5G devices, particularly for IoT applications, can be a barrier to widespread adoption in countries where cost sensitivity is high.”

However, Wireless Logic sees promising trends that may mitigate this issue, including declining costs and government subsidised device upgrades.

“The cost of 4G/5G devices continues to decrease, making them more accessible. Additionally, recycling second-hand devices is a viable approach to increase affordability,” adds Tu.

According to Trend, innovative business models with Pay-as-you-go and IoT-as-a-Service models are emerging, reducing upfront costs for businesses; while multi-mode modules can support both older and newer network technologies, providing a transition path for cost-sensitive applications.

Sunsetting corridor

Southern and southeastern Asia is a broad region, home to dozens of individual countries – all with their own governments and regulatory policies.
“While the overall trend is towards sunsetting 2G/3G networks, the timeline and approach vary significantly across Asia,” says Trend. “Countries with less developed digital infrastructure, such as Myanmar, Laos, or Cambodia, may retain these networks longer due to the prevalence of legacy devices and the high cost of nationwide 4G/5G deployment. However, the situation is dynamic, with sunset dates constantly evolving. India, despite its tech-forward reputation, may also maintain 2G networks longer in rural areas due to the sheer scale of its market and the continued reliance on 2G phones in some regions. However, more developed markets like Singapore, South Korea, and Japan are likely to be among the first to complete the transition, driven by their advanced digital economies and the need for spectrum to support 5G and future 6G networks.”

Given that the refarming of 4G networks requires network planning and investment support from various operators, “in open, competitive markets, earlier evolution is advantageous as it allows operators to provide better services to the majority of customers,” says Tu. “While some countries might retain 2G/3G networks longer due to specific local needs or economic constraints, the overall trend suggests that the move to newer technologies is inevitable across Asia.”

“The retention of limited 2G/3G capacity will likely vary by country, driven by specific economic, geographic, and technological factors,” explains Trend.

“Emergency services, certain IoT applications in agriculture or environmental monitoring, and some legacy banking systems may require this support. Take India for instance, with factors such as its vast rural areas and lack of affordable smartphones, may maintain some 2G capacity longer than its neighbours. However, this retention is likely temporary. The long-term trend points towards full migration to 4G/5G technologies, driven by spectrum efficiency needs and demand for advanced services. A ‘sunset corridor’ approach may emerge, where small portions of 2G/3G spectrum are maintained for specific applications while the majority is repurposed.”

Indeed, the move to sunset 2G/3G now seems all but inevitable, but the transition will be gradual and tailored to each country’s specific economic and technological landscape.