26 July 2024

Mobile voice service revenue will decline at a CAGR of 0.8% between 2023 and 2028, in line with the steady drop in mobile voice average revenue per user (ARPU) levels as operators bundle free voice minutes with most of their service plans, and mobile users increasingly adopt internet-based voice communication platforms.

Mobile data service revenue, on the other hand, will grow at the fastest CAGR of 5.8% over the forecast period as data consumption over mobile devices continues to grow on 4G and 5G networks. The average monthly mobile data usage is forecast to increase from 11.7GB in 2023 to 25.5GB in 2028, driven by the growing consumption of high-bandwidth online video services and social media content over smartphones.

“4G will remain the leading mobile technology, by subscriptions, through 2028 as operators continue with their LTE network expansion plans to extend 4G services to all remote villages and sub-districts in the country. In June 2024, Indosat highlighted its strategic emphasis on enhancing and strengthening 4G network, citing the significantly higher penetration of 4G devices compared to 5G,” said Kantipudi Pradeepthi, telecom analyst at GlobalData. “5G subscriptions are projected to increase at a faster rate over the forecast period and are expected to reach about 21% share of the total mobile subscriptions by the end of 2028, as operators step up their efforts to expand their 5G networks in the country. In May 2024, XL Axiata partnered with Ericsson to deploy a dual mode 5G Core solution, which ensures flexibility with its 4G and 5G network expansions nationwide. Telkomsel led the 2023 mobile services market and is poised to lead until 2028 given its strong focus on 4G and 5G network expansions nationwide and its wide-ranging device and data-centric bundled plans.”